Tuesday, June 14, 2005

Details...

In the comments I'm rightly taken to task for complaining about being marketed to. What I was trying to point out with my first post was not that I was being marketed to, but one person who was able to send around a lot of books, and between that and the addition of some friends votes, was able to push an item onto the ballot of an award. While I'm all for marketing I'd rather see marketing directed at readers and gaining new readers, those few hundred free copies could have gone to saloons or doctors offices to build that writer new readers. What the author did doesn't strike me as guerilla marketing, giving free copies away at a bar with magnets and a reading would have been guerilla.

It's fairly obvious the award I'm talking about is the Nebula, and I'm fascinated with the process. SFWA is a small group of readers (the organization is somewhere over a thousand members) and here's what has to be read in order to keep up:

According to Locus in 2004 1,417 new genre books were published. That's a lot of books. Rich Horton notes in his 2003 short fiction summary/survey that he read 52 novellas, 281 novelettes, and 1189 short stories. Looking at this link you get a very quick list of what he had to read (magazines, chapbooks, anthologies, online venues) to get them all.

With thousands of titles to choose from it's not surprising we're in a bind, and whoever sends a book around will probably get votes. Who can afford to even buy hundreds of new books every year while subscribing and hunting down every single possible venue that short fiction might exist in?

So here's an idea, why not create an online list for SFWA members who'd like to be marketed to and who want to try to read everything? It would be an area that you could get online in, add your physical address to if you don't mind mailers, and your email address if you don't mind e-copies being sent to you, and the list could be available to any SFWA member who clicked on it and wanted to send things around. Additionally, I wouldn't mind a common 'Nebula upload' area where interested authors could post stuff they thought worthy that one could browse around and download stories for consideration.

It isn't a perfect solution, but it would at least begin to address the problem of the SFWA list being considered a guerilla marketing tool and also allow the harried and unread to be have greater access to work for award consideration.

It's just a thought.

On another conversation starter: here is one example of how the Nebula award has changed with this award slightly in the last few decades. Here is the Nebula Final Ballot for short fiction for 1965:

"Balanced Ecology" by James Schmitz
"Becalmed in Hell" by Larry Niven
"A Better Mousehole" by Edgar Pangborn
"Better Than Ever" by Alex Kris
"Calling Dr. Clockwork" by Ron Goulart
"Come to Venus Melancholy" by Thomas M. Disch
"Computers Don't Argue" by Gordon R. Dickson
"Cyclops" by Fritz Leiber
"Devil Car" by Roger Zelazny
"The Eight Billion" by Richard Wilson
"Eyes Do More Than See" by Isaac Asimov
"A Few Kindred Spirits" by John Christopher
"Founding Father" by Isaac Asimov
"Games" by Donald Barthelme
"The Good New Days" by Fritz Leiber
"The House the Blakeneys Built" by Avram Davidson
"In Our Block" by R. A. Lafferty
"Inside Man" by H. L. Gold
"Keep Them Happy" by Robert Rohrer
"A Leader for Yesterday" by Mack Reynolds
"Lord Moon" by Jand Beauclerk
"The Mischief Maker" by Richard Olin
"Of One Mind" by James Durham
"Over the River and Through the Trees" by Clifford D. Simak
"The Peacock King" by Ted White & L. McCombs
""Repent, Harlequin!" Said the Ticktockman" by Harlan Ellison
"Slow Tuesday Night" by R. A. Lafferty
"Souvenir" by J. G. Ballard
"Though a Sparrow Fall" by Scott Nichols
"Uncollected Works" by Lin Carter
"Wrong-Way Street" by Larry Niven


And here's the Final Nebula Ballot for 2004:

"Coming to Terms" by Eileen Gunn (Stable Strategies and Others Sep 2004)
"The Strange Redemption of Sister Mary Anne" by Mike Moscoe (Analog Nov 2004)
"Travels With my Cats" by Mike Resnick (Asimov's Feb 2004)
"Embracing-The-New" by Benjamin Rosenbaum (Asimov's Jan 2004)
"In the Late December" by Greg van Eekhout (Strange Horizons Dec. 22, 2003)
"Aloha" by Ken Wharton (AnalogJun 2003)


Spot the difference?

I'm told it was because it used to be 3 recommendations that got a story to that point, not the 10 that exists now. What effect would having a smaller 'crib reading list' that the final ballot now represents have? If the authors of the first Nebulas were photocopying and sending final ballot stories around wouldn't that have really increased the titles pool and made for some very exciting awards times?

Or am I way off the mark?

By the way, for the record, I'm not nostalgic for 'good old days' nor am I interested in a manifesto, but I'm anonymously here to try and offer up some links to great fiction and to find out about great fiction I may have missed, and to also see if I can toss some interesting ideas out there.

69 Comments:

Blogger chance said...

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

6:29 AM  
Blogger chance said...

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

6:32 AM  
Blogger chance said...

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

6:32 AM  
Blogger chance said...

Nice that you cherry pick.

Let's look at some other years right around that time:

1966 - Short Stories

"Light of Other Days" by Bob Shaw

"Man In His Time" by Brian W. Aldiss

"The Secret Place" by Richard McKenna

1967 - Short Stories

"Answering Service" by Fritz Leiber

"Aye, and Gomorrah" by Samuel R. Delany

"Baby, You Were Great" by Kate Wilhelm

"The Doctor" by Theodore Thomas

"Driftglass" by Samuel R. Delany

"Earthwoman" by Reginald Bretnor

1968 - Short Stories

"The Dance of the Changer and the Three" by Terry Carr

"Idiot's Mate" by Robert Taylor

"Kyrie" by Poul Anderson

"Masks" by Damon Knight

"The Planners" by Kate Wilhelm

"Sword Game" by H. H. Hollis

The next time more than 6 nominees appears on the final ballot is in 1975.

It's hardly a shocing disparity from today.

6:34 AM  
Blogger chance said...

wow - and trying to fix the list of nominees 3 times and I still have a typo for shocking.

bleh.

8:20 AM  
Blogger Stygian Dark said...

Yes, I did cherry pick, that's why I invited someone to correct me :-) What effect does having a larger final ballot have and what -could- it have? Doesn't that long list look really interesting. I've actually started tracking down some of those stories to read because it kinda looks way more exciting to have all those items to consider...

10:56 AM  
Blogger Ellen Datlow said...

How do you know the book got on because of friends' votes? Do you know all the friends of the author? Could it at all be possible that enough non-friends actually liked the book enough to nominate it?

"...and between that and the addition of some friends votes, was able to push an item onto the ballot of an award."

3:24 PM  
Blogger Stygian Dark said...

Good point, Ellen. I don't know, I don't know for sure, I just know of several other books others percieved as just as good if not better that didn't get as many votes because people hadn't had a chance to read them, and I feel like we're missing out because of that.

I suggested an idea for levelling the playing field and getting more potential eyeballs on a piece being considered for awards and so far no one has commented on it, and that's the part I'd rather discuss. Do you think having an area like what I discusses would be beneficial to getting more of the stuff read? Certainly I know being able to download the final ballot stories in a larger quantity has made me a more informed voter, and others have said as much to me as well. What do others think?

4:09 PM  
Blogger Johnny Dark said...

In 1965 the Nebulas didn't have a preliminary ballot, just a final ballot. The 1965 ballot had 70 nominees! If I had been voting that year, there's no way I'd have been able to read everything on the ballot. So I'm all in favor of cutting down on the field with a preliminary ballot before the final ballot.

Michael Kube-McDowell has an amusing (if somewhat out of date) discussion of the awards statistics at www.sff.net/people/K-Mac/nebula.htm

[Stygian had written: I wouldn't mind a common 'Nebula upload' area where interested authors could post stuff they thought worthy ]

... you do know that SFWA has a list of eligible fiction available online www.sfwa.org/private/nar/fiction/

5:24 PM  
Anonymous Nick Mamatas said...

Thanks for allowing non-blogger comments!

Now, onward.

The complaint seems to be that people send out books and thus get votes. The solution to this is to send out lots more books, but in harder-to-read electronic formats? HUH?

If it is difficult to read hundreds of books, it is certainly that much more difficult to read hundreds of books in PDF files. But of course one need not read hundreds of books; even jurors on a juried award would need to read only a bit of most titles before deciding that they are not award-quality.

By the by, the HWA has an online directory and allows members to mark their entries NO MASS MAILINGS if they don't want to receive free books. Fewer than a dozen people bother to do so. Getting those free books is just an unofficial perk of membership in a writer's org. The number of recommendations/nominations received versus number of books sent suggest that in strong categories (like Nebula novel, as opposed to say, Stoker poetry) the effect of the freebies is minimal.

Finally, why would leaving hundreds of books around saloons and waiting rooms be effective marketing? That's essentially a direct mail-type system, and direct mail has a very very low standard of return (1% or less). Award nominations, on the other hand, do help sales, if only slightly, and over the long-term help prestige and reputation, whichy can translate into sales and more money per sale.

5:30 PM  
Blogger David Moles said...

I suggested an idea for levelling the playing field and getting more potential eyeballs on a piece being considered for awards...

"Levelling the playing field," eh? So, is the real complaint here that some authors or publishers can or do mount Nebula marketing campaigns and some can't or don't? I think the NAR Recommended Fiction On Line page (pointed out by Mr. J. Dark) pretty much already does what you're asking for, but it doesn't solve that problem -- if it is a problem.

So far my exposure to Nebula campaigning has consisted of one email recommendation for a story, freely available on line, that I probably would have read eventually anyway (though perhaps not before its eligibility expired), and a handful of ugly postcards advertising ugly books. None of it's struck me as particularly effective.

SFWA members being people, they're going to read what people read, which for all but a few dedicated souls and paid critics means stuff that their friends have written, or stuff that their friends have edited, or stuff that their friends have recommended to them. I don't see any way around that.

And even if a marketing campaign does get something the extra couple of recommendations needed to put it on the ballot, so what? It's not taking anything else off. And people still need to read it and vote for it. And voters don't usually have trouble getting their hands on the works that do make the final ballot.

Anyway, not that I don't want a Lucite-and-glitter toy of my own, but I think you're taking the whole thing a little too seriously. In a hundred years (ten, five, two) who's gonna care?

8:15 PM  
Blogger Onyx said...

David,

I don't think a blog is taking something very seriously. Words are too easy.

10:50 AM  
Blogger Safe Light said...

On the seriousness issue:

Dave:

We got a bunch of writers going around in masks like Batman and callin' themselves a dark cabal.

There's a certain level of silly and indulgent you should maybe kick back & enjoy.

1:19 PM  
Blogger David Moles said...

Wey-all... I knew it was silly, I just wasn't sure it was on purpose. :) The tone of y'all's posts is serious enough. More noisemakers and funny hats, I'm thinking.

8:11 PM  
Blogger Stygian Dark said...

Exactly! :-)

So okay, not everyone seems to think the idea of seeing a larger list to choose from and seek out was a cool idea, but I still gut instinct think that a longer more involved list would be a great idea... and that an easily browsable and accesible group post area would rock...

12:48 AM  
Blogger Johnny Dark said...

I'm not sure what a "more involved" list is, but I'll re-emphasize my own "gut instinct" that a longer list is worse rather than better. With a long list, basically people won't be able to read all the nominees, and this is going to result in the fact that the less well-distributed stories are going to vanish in the clutter. The longer the list, the more clutter there is, and the harder it is to find the good stuff on it.

The SFWA process, in fact, tries (perhaps inadequately) to address this problem-- it starts out with a long list, and then has a three-step process to pare this down to a short list of finalists. (and, in fact, if I were dictator of SFWA, I would make the final Nebula ballot shorter).

The trick, and the ostensible purpose of this blog, is not to get more stuff on the list, but to get better stuff on the list. Unfortunately, it's not easy to figure out how to do that --other than by doing it that hard way: reading, recommending, and nominating good stuff.

(I say "ostensible". The real reason for this blog, of course, is to wear masks, hide behind secret identities, and revel in the fact that we're in a cabal.)

9:48 AM  
Blogger Stygian Dark said...

Ok, fair enough :-)

10:25 AM  
Blogger David Moles said...

Hmm. People are most likely to read the stuff that does make it onto the final ballot, no? I can see that there's a point after which the final ballot itself becomes too long to read, but I don't see how making it shorter helps.

Unless one would prefer to have a juried award, or perhaps a Philosopher-Autocratted award, and do away with this silly nomination and voting business altogether?

Because clearly the problem, as stated, is that too many bozos are nominating and voting for the wrong things.

3:41 PM  
Blogger Stygian Dark said...

Because clearly the problem, as stated, is that too many bozos are nominating and voting for the wrong things.

I'm trying to find where I said that at all.

That isn't the problem. Not enough people are voting and nominating, that's why I said having a long list seemed cool, it seemed to imply more nominating and voting, and the larger the group the better results according to 'mob theory' which I find fascinating. The two suggestions I had on there have nothing to do about 'people voting for the wrong things' but on trying create systems that allow for this pattern easier. I thought being able to browse a repository where the works where would make that easier, and that having a larger list would allow more items to have visibility (though an insanely long list -would- defeat that, what do you think a good list should be, 5, 10, 15, 20 works a category?).

I have made no such blatent statement as you accuse me of and I'm kind of offended. I want more reading and more voting. I don't think anyone is a bozo, where have I made this accusation?

10:45 PM  
Blogger Johnny Dark said...

david moles commented:
Hmm. People are most likely to read the stuff that does make it onto the final ballot, no? I can see that there's a point after which the final ballot itself becomes too long to read, but I don't see how making it shorter helps.

Several comments. One is there isn't a "point" at which the ballot is too long; it is a continuous process. Some people will find three candidates too many to read. Some will find thirty not a problem. The longer the ballot is, the more people drop out from the (unpaid) job of reading everything, but there's no identifiable single point.

Second comment is that an awards process is by nature a selection down to a choice of one. (Unless you chose the Lewis Carroll solution, "at last the Dodo said, 'everybody has won, and all must have prizes'.") So the question is not whether to shorten the ballot, but when. Is it better to shorten the list earlier, or later?

If the final ballot had, say, ten candidates, on the average each one would get ten percent of the vote-- a strong contender might get thirty percent. Do you want to select a winner based on the largest minority opinion? Or do you put in some sort of run-off? A run-off is, in fact, just a method of "shortening the ballot;" it just does it later in the process and in a less-transparent way.

9:31 AM  
Blogger David Moles said...

S. Dark: You didn't say too many bozos were nominating and voting for the wrong things, but it seems like the logical extension of the idea that non-award-worthy works are making the ballot because nominators are being swayed by the receipt of free copies of said works (implying that the nominators are bozos -- at least, I'd consider that bozo behavior), of J. Dark's idea that what's needed is a list with better things on it than on the lists we have now (implying, again, that the nominators are bozos, or anyway lacking in either taste or in reading scope), and of J. Dark's idea that a shorter list would be preferable (implying that the voters can't be trusted to find the best works in the lists we have now.

I'm not accusing you of saying anything, but I think that's what the arguments the two of you were making (note past tense) boil down to.

And, Dr. J., your "largest minority opinion" argument is hogwash, because the Nebulas use instant-runoff voting. What you're getting isn't the first choice of the largest minority, it's the choice the largest number of voters can agree on.

7:07 PM  
Blogger Johnny Dark said...

Hmmm. Obviously I wasn't clear.

A run-off is a method to shorten a long ballot into a short ballot.

Saying "we should have a long ballot, and use run-off to select the winner" is a statement that is exactly identical to "we should have a short ballot, where the method of shortening is to sucessively eliminate the works that have the fewest first place votes."

Using instant run-off means that there's only actual time you cast ballots, but the number of actual votes is equal to the number of candidates minus one (if there are 20 candidates, say, the ballots are counted nineteen times, each time successively eliminating one candidate.) There is still a final ballot (actually a succession of final ballots); it's just that the process of generating this final ballot is automatic, and you don't see if happen, and you don't get to vote again with just the final candidates.

So what you're saying is that you like a short ballot, too, and you think instant run-off is a good way to make the ballot short.

What I am saying is that the problems with huge ballots is that it is increasingly difficult to read all the candidates as the ballot gets larger, and so as the ballot gets long, you get a lot of people voting who haven't read everything. I would find it better to cut down the ballot early.

2:18 PM  
Blogger David Moles said...

So what you're saying is that you like a short ballot, too, and you think instant run-off is a good way to make the ballot short.

No, because a winner is not the same as a ballot of one.

If the goal of the Nebula process is to identify the best piece in each category (where "best" is defined as "most preferred by active SFWA members"), then what would be ideal would be a purely notional "ballot", consisting of every eligible work published in each category. Have every eligible voter read every piece, and rank them according to IRV or Condorcet or something.

Clearly that's impossible, for several different reasons. But the goal of whatever process the awards do use ought to be to maximize the chance of producing the same result that would have been produced by the ideal system. Cutting down the ballot doesn't, in and of itself, get you any closer to that. It just means it's even more likely that people end up not reading the story they would have voted for.

Unless, of course, the process used to cut down the ballot violates causality and operates with foreknowledge of the results. In which case, why bother with a ballot at all?

5:01 PM  
Blogger Johnny Dark said...

Well, it's a pleasure having a discussion with somebody knowledgable, who even knows what Condorcet voting is! I admit to being far too fascinated with the details of voting mechanics, and I suspect that this conversation has already strayed way too far off topic. Nevertheless, we've probably driven off everybody not interested in voting methods, and if we haven't yet, I'm sure that this post will.

I don't think that I have a significant disagreement with your ideal position. The idealized process you would suggest would be fine, if we could live in that idealized world where everybody reads every piece. But the harder question is how do we craft a voting process for the actual real world we do live in?

I'm not sure if you actually understood my point earlier. You seem to continue be asserting that a large ballot, voted on using instant-run-off voting, is different in nature than the process of cutting down the large ballot to a small ballot, then voting on the smaller ballot. They are not different: instant run-off is simply one method of turning a large ballot into a smaller one.

Consider a starting field of 20 candidates. Instant run-off will successively eliminate candidates. Consider the point in the process when all but five candidate are eliminated. You can, if you like, call this the "final ballot." You could stop here, send this out to all the voters, and ask them to vote again on this smaller field. In this case you have used instant run-off as a means to cut the ballot down to five, and vote again to select the winner. Or you could instead merely pause here, but then continue on to use the original votes to continue the process to select a winner.

Now, is there any reason why it's better not to have a new vote when there are five candidates, but instead to use the old votes from the field of 20? No, not really. With a new vote on the smaller field, if nothing else, some people who hadn't read all 20 original candidates can now focus their attention, read the few they hadn't read, and vote with more information.

Instant run-off is a way of narrowing the field by successive elimination; it's a little less obvious that it narrows the field to five, since it also narrows it to any other number you like. But it does narrow the field to a "final ballot" of five (or any other number), whether or not you pause it at that point.

So what you're advocating is not that you don't want to cut the long ballot down to a short ballot; you are merely advocating one particular method of cutting a long ballot down to a short ballot, and further advocating that once the short ballot is obtained, the final voting should proceed automatically by means of votes cast before anybody knew what the final ballot would be, rather than having a new vote on that short ballot.

I assert that this is not better:
(1) instant run-off is not necessarily the best way to eliminate 15 candidates from a field of 20.
(2) there is no advantage in not taking a new vote once the field has been reduced to a final ballot of 5.

10:12 PM  
Blogger David Moles said...

With a new vote on the smaller field, if nothing else, some people who hadn't read all 20 original candidates can now focus their attention, read the few they hadn't read, and vote with more information.

I think this gets to the heart of the difference in our positions. You're saying that the shorter the ballot, the more likely the voters are to be familiar with all the candidates, and the more attention they'll be able to devote to each one, and so the more well-considered the decision will be. I'm saying that if you can't trust the voters to make a good decision on the long ballot, you also can't trust the voting process that winnows down the field.

Particularly when you take into account that what produces the preliminary ballot, in the case of the Nebulas, isn't a voting process at all.

12:28 PM  
Blogger Johnny Dark said...

David Moles said... I'm saying that if you can't trust the voters to make a good decision on the long ballot, you also can't trust the voting process that winnows down the field.

We seem to be talking at cross purposes here.

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